Size of the merchant fleet IYTU?

[Tobias]

All the threads about large ships vs. small ships and fleet sizes were focussed on the Navy side of things. So I have been wondering: What about the merchant service?
As far as I can tell, the canonical sources (in CT) are sparse. In TTA, Akerut is said to operate 50 large (5000 dton) freighters in Aramis subsector, but I don't think it's clear what kind of market share that represents or which other ships they have.

As a means of comparison, all the world's cargo vessels had a combined capacity of 1.35 billion tdw in 2011, which neatly equals ~100 million dtons in Traveller. This is cargo capacity, not total tonnage. Assuming the ships in TTA, which have cargo capacities of ~1000 dtons on average, are somewhat typical, you'd have about 100,000 cargo ships - which is actually the same order of magnitude as the total number of oceangoing cargo vessels 2011 Terra has.

This, of course, is for the trade volume of a single TL8 high population world. The question is: How much more would the transport needs of a sector with 783 billion inhabitants be?

 

[robject]

There is a mention in Traders & Gunboats (uh, or perhaps one of the other supplements) about 100,000 ton freighters serving major routes in the core of the Imperium. I figure some of those could follow along the xboat routes as far out as they need to go.

For the purposes of a role-playing game, however, we're unlikely to ever meet one.

Now if you're asking about traffic... well, that horse has been beaten to death. It boils down to an imponderable, since the OTU leaves enough wiggle room to have as much or as little traffic as you like. The subject is a Traveller holy war.

We do know that interstellar travel is expensive. So to do a rule of thumb, first decide how much money a middle passage ticket costs in real Earth terms, then figure out how many people today would buy a ticket in a given year.

If you like, use Virgin Galactic's ticket prices and waiting list as a starting point. He's signed up over 400 people so far, collected over the past few years. So, it is possible that he could sustainably get 100 people a year into low orbit, 6 people at a time, for $200,000 a head. That's 16 flights per year. That's about 6 people every 3+ weeks.

Add in interstellar corporate executives and government officials. Mix. Tune to taste. Serve.

 

[Tobias]

I haven't really thought of passengers at all. It just appears to me that for interstellar trade to be statistically significant as compared to planetary trade, there either have to be very large cargo ships, or a lot of them, or both.

Of course, using sea transport as a comparison might be flawed. Air transport may be a better comparison, but it is comparably more expensive than Traveller interstellar transport.

P.S.: Has it been a "holy war" on the TML? I mostly steered clear of it.

 

[Dragoner]

After living in a major port for 20 years (Oakland, California) and spending a decent amount of time in Long Beach, I've seen that the only limitation on ship size is the draught interfering with bringing them into port. I've read the 100,000 ton thing as well, I would not doubt to see even a 1,000,000 ton freighter, if the capacity could be used efficiently. This is cargo I'm talking about, passengers are mostly going to go on dedicated liners.

I don't use the trade sections as an example of macroeconomics, they are just a speculative market in an undeveloped area.

 

[abomination]

There is a mention in Traders & Gunboats (uh, or perhaps one of the other supplements) about 100,000 ton freighters serving major routes in the core of the Imperium. I figure some of those could follow along the xboat routes as far out as they need to go.

For the purposes of a role-playing game, however, we're unlikely to ever meet one.

Actually I'm working on the deck plans for such a beast for my players to run about on. Hope to get it finished over the holidays. If the general drunkeness & figures I have to paint don't get in the way.

 

[Mithras]

I've seen that the only limitation on ship size is the draught interfering with bringing them into port.

Might a Traveller equivalent (limits to cargo ship size) be the ability of shuttles or other interface traffic to get that cargo from orbit or up to orbit?? Might we see 2000 ton shuttles bringing down 1500 tons of cargo in one go from a ship with an 80,000 ton cargo hold? Even then, that's not much of a dent. And if such an interface limit does prevent super-massive cargo ships, would not tugs and lighters (streamlined of course) not be a good work-around?

 

[aramis]

Tugs are a poor choice due to numerous factors, Paul.
1) Tug+lighters has the disadvantage of the lighter being exposed
2) Tug+lighters has lashing requirements, probably mechanical, requiring increased structural strength for both at the attachment point
3) Tug+lighters results in massive wasted space due to drive and control space duplications.

If doing big, a single or double lighter dock with cargo-pod swapping (possibly with pods on a carousel which get lifted up from their slot into the lighter) is far better than the tug. Not as fast on the load/unload, but much safer long term. If going someplace without local lighter facilities, just carry the two; when going someplace with them, use your two in rotation with local ones to get a lighter every (unload+load time) minutes.

Containerized cargos don't have to be the roughly 4 ton-displacement size we see in canon (which, BTW, is close to the same overall volume as a standard 40' conex)... a 30-ton box would go great on non-rounded modular cutters, making for a decent model... and at 420 cubic meters exterior, probably 415-418 useful interior to allow for space rating, pressure integrity, mobilization equipment (wheels, retractable), temperature stabilization, battery backup for same, and such...

 

[Enoki]

I would think it merchants are alot like shipping is here on Earth today and in the past. This might give you a better idea of what it would look like:

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml

Anyway, I see Traveller merchant shipping as being multi-tiered. The most advanced, populous, richest, and best star port planets would have major ships of say, 50,000+ tons arriving on a pretty regular basis. From there loads would be broken down for say, subsector or cluster shipment onto smaller freighers.
The small ships of under 1000 tons like in Gunboats and Traders are local shippers or used in backwaters that the bigger companies won't bother with. Some of the smaller ones might also specialize in particular goods or shipments.
For example, there would likely be the equivalent of an armored car delivery service between planets that carried money shipments (armored car robbery anyone?). The ship wouldn't have to be big but it would have to be well armed.

 

[Dragoner]

Might a Traveller equivalent (limits to cargo ship size) be the ability of shuttles or other interface traffic to get that cargo from orbit or up to orbit?? Might we see 2000 ton shuttles bringing down 1500 tons of cargo in one go from a ship with an 80,000 ton cargo hold? Even then, that's not much of a dent. And if such an interface limit does prevent super-massive cargo ships, would not tugs and lighters (streamlined of course) not be a good work-around?

Mostly it would be an elevator running shipping containers up and down, probably the big freighters would be like battlerider tenders, except the 'riders would be huge pods filled with containers. Thus as it passed through the highport, it would drop a pod FOB for that world and pick up another outbound. You could have big shuttles, an elevator would be more efficient ala the Mars trilogy; no air traffic control or landing space, just down to some transfer-conveyance point where grav trucks would take it to it's final destination. The square-cube law would affect structure size to some degree, but one can guess materials and structual sciences have progressed as well over thousands of years. Traveller seems to support this with the shuttles being relatively small, though maybe grav trucks could grab containers in orbit and the take them to their final destination.

 

[aramis]

IMTU, my presumption is that bigger population high-tech worlds generally import LESS per capita than smaller ones; as the world gets more and more self-capable, the slowness of jump trade casuses it to take a backseat to suborbital and local system trade.

This, in fact, mirrors what happened with the US as its population burgeoned in the late 19th Century - it became self-sufficient, and luxuries became the dominant import. (And then we got a paradigm shift in the early 20th century, that skyrocketed our international trade again, thanks to one innovation... Telegraph Cables... and being able to verify that what you ordered was (1) in stock, (2) on the ship, and (3) paid for before being shipped. The mechanics of Jump Drive prevent that for inter-system trade. Intra-system, except in some exceptional systems, is likely to be comparatively much faster turn around. And lower shipping costs than outsystem.

 

[Dragoner]

IMTU, my presumption is that bigger population high-tech worlds generally import LESS per capita than smaller ones; as the world gets more and more self-capable, the slowness of jump trade casuses it to take a backseat to suborbital and local system trade.

The volume would still be higher. The capital input per unit ratio, says that for the same inputs, a less developed country (or world) has a higher return rate than for a developed world. The inputs would still be higher per capita in a developed world just because there is less risk in the market. Entrepenuers will go out to invest in developing worlds to expand markets and in doing so will funnel capital away from the more developed worlds. In turn, in order to recoup capital out flow, the world will try to balance net exports and imports, which means exporting goods and services to bring capital back in.

This, in fact, mirrors what happened with the US as its population burgeoned in the late 19th Century - it became self-sufficient, and luxuries became the dominant import. (And then we got a paradigm shift in the early 20th century, that skyrocketed our international trade again, thanks to one innovation... Telegraph Cables... and being able to verify that what you ordered was (1) in stock, (2) on the ship, and (3) paid for before being shipped. The mechanics of Jump Drive prevent that for inter-system trade. Intra-system, except in some exceptional systems, is likely to be comparatively much faster turn around. And lower shipping costs than outsystem.

The US is a strange case, it had the ability for economic autarky and then pursued the course through tariffs until the 1970's and 80's.

I just finished a 200 level course in macroeconomics (anybody who likes that stuff must be slightly insane) and from always thinking of the Imperium as a trade federation (the nobility is just a dog and pony show, people love a spectacle), I look at the Imperium more now as a super-sized WTO. One doesn't see tariffs much and in ownership of many megacorps you see the nobility at a pretty good percentage rate, I remember reading also somewhere that the nobility were mostly involved with the Imperial Bureaucracy, which makes sense and fits the WTO type system.

Shipping will go hand in hand with entrepenurialism of developing other markets, esp once the developed markets become saturated. Maybe they own the shipping company outright or it's just a subsidiary; bill collection by mercenary company and more commercial paper secured by assets. The big shippers won't ship the smaller cargos, they would contract out a smaller shipment, perfect gig for a free trader though.

 

[Enoki]

IMTU, my presumption is that bigger population high-tech worlds generally import LESS per capita than smaller ones; as the world gets more and more self-capable, the slowness of jump trade casuses it to take a backseat to suborbital and local system trade.

This, in fact, mirrors what happened with the US as its population burgeoned in the late 19th Century - it became self-sufficient, and luxuries became the dominant import. (And then we got a paradigm shift in the early 20th century, that skyrocketed our international trade again, thanks to one innovation... Telegraph Cables... and being able to verify that what you ordered was (1) in stock, (2) on the ship, and (3) paid for before being shipped. The mechanics of Jump Drive prevent that for inter-system trade. Intra-system, except in some exceptional systems, is likely to be comparatively much faster turn around. And lower shipping costs than outsystem.

I would say the opposite is true. Any system will have its resource advantages and disadvantages. Let's say a particular highly developed system is short on certain elements on the periodic table by bad luck or by having used them up. Or, they simply need far more than nature provided on its own.
The result would be imports of that material or, imports of things that are made with that material.

The other reason would be like a major port or rail shipping hub. The concentration of resources there or the location of a particular system makes it a desirable location to concentrate imports and exports for shipment elsewhere.

Now what likely wouldn't be widely done is long distance shipping. That is you would be unlikely to find any shipping firm that has vessels jumping repeatedly across an entire sector or more. Those would be relatively rare and most likely either very specialized and small ships carrying very rare or exotic cargos (read expensive) or, the occasional long haul ship doing the same for more massive cargos.

 

[rancke]

The volume would still be higher. The capital input per unit ratio, says that for the same inputs, a less developed country (or world) has a higher return rate than for a developed world. The inputs would still be higher per capita in a developed world just because there is less risk in the market. Entrepenuers will go out to invest in developing worlds to expand markets and in doing so will funnel capital away from the more developed worlds. In turn, in order to recoup capital out flow, the world will try to balance net exports and imports, which means exporting goods and services to bring capital back in.

And remember that the only way to transfer wealth from one world to another is by moving goods. (Well, services too, but they're harder to use on an interstellar scale).


Hans

 

[MCEvans]

Akerut in TTA running approx 50 5kt streamlined cargo haulers moving local and Vargr products in a subsector feels high to me, but it's there.
----Note also that to make most of the runs two or three 500 ton demountable tanks are installed in the cargo hold reducing its 2911 ton capacity by about 1/3 to 1/2 bringing it in line with the 2kt Imperiallines TI frontier transport.

Al Morai a sector wide line in TSMC runs 53 3kt unstreamlined cargo haulers and only service 51 worlds.

I feel that the limiting factors of size are;

• TL of products hauled (lower TL generally takes more room)
• Type of product hauled (AG and bulk ore generally takes more room)
• The system's starport, most unstreamlined ships are going to be limited to A, B and major C class. Whereas a streamlined ship can land 'anywhere' regardless for the starport type/class. The bulk of streamlined ships are 1-2kt or less.

Also remember that the larger the ship the larger the overhead, so only those that can diversify or become subsidized can really afford to run the bigger ships.

Just some late night thoughts

 

[Dragoner]

And remember that the only way to transfer wealth from one world to another is by moving goods. (Well, services too, but they're harder to use on an interstellar scale).


Hans

Depends on what is "wealth", if it's currency then that would be simple. However, it would more likely be manufactured goods which need capital and capital in the form of the factors of production which is complicated. wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factors_of_production

Technological and Intellectual Capital don't necessarily mean the transfer of goods and fit the bill of services, which could generate wealth for the world exporting them.

IMO, in Traveller, space travel is cheap enough to prevent the moving of factories to other worlds, with other factors such as developed worlds being in an important trade nexus (which would give reason to why they were developed to begin with). You could see an odd specialized world like Ix from Dune, but it would be rare.

 

[aramis]

If you can have your manufacturing elsewhere in system, and grow your crops locally on the mainworld, there is little reason to trade outsystem, especially once the automation revolution reduces the workforce to non-industrial employment.

At TL10+, people doing manufacturing are either doing developmental test runs, recrudescing, being given make-work jobs, or being neoluddites. The automation tech is (based upon Bk8) sufficient to render actual plant jobs obsolete, except maybe QC.

Which is the real conundrum... what to 10 billion people do when all the manufacturing is automated?

Past a certain point, most everyone moves either into sales, entertainment, or government, or the dole. The remainder go into research and academia, but the number of people who can is always limited in those areas by both intellect and temperament, as well as ability to provide pay-worthy efforts...

Perhaps the reason so much of the GNP looks pitiful is that it's 90% of the TL10+ population really are at Bread & Circuses levels?

 

[mike wightman]

Oh dear - you just gave me a horrible thought.

What do 10 billion people do on a high tech world when the machines do everything for them...

endless reality TV.

 

[rancke]

Depends on what is "wealth", if it's currency then that would be simple.

Currency isn't wealth. It's promisory notes. If there's nothing to spend it on, it's worthless.


Hans

 

[shield]

The CT Book 9 mentions a 50ktn monitor that was shipped from mone of the major worlds to an outlying system. They had to wait for an IN tender to transport it as there were no merchant ships with a big enough cargo capacity in the marches.

The rebellion sourcebook has a 30ktn J3 bulk carrier, and Power Projection has a 50Ktn modular freighter. They seem about right for the max size in the marches.

I imagine that there are certain main routes with the large bulk freighters 50-30ktn and the large liners (Rhylanor, Glisten, Lunion subsectro, Mora, Trin) slightly smaller bulk vessels 30-10ktn out to the other important worlds like Jewell, Efate, Regina, Aramis etc. Then stuff drops down to the Tukera sized freighters, the Class M liners and the smaller shippers.

The Imperial Core, Vland, Old Expanses and the Solomani Rim have much higher TLs and world populations so they would have the 100ktn+ bulk carriers.

Cheers
Richard

 

[Mithras]

The CT Book 9 mentions a 50ktn monitor that was shipped from mone of the major worlds to an outlying system. They had to wait for an IN tender to transport it as there were no merchant ships with a big enough cargo capacity in the marches.

Supplement 9, "commercial ships of that size are unknown in the Spinward Marches", thats a ship with a cargo cap of 50,000 tons. Maybe there are no ships over 10,000 tons...