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Size of the merchant fleet IYTU?

The CT Book 9 mentions a 50ktn monitor that was shipped from mone of the major worlds to an outlying system. They had to wait for an IN tender to transport it as there were no merchant ships with a big enough cargo capacity in the Marches.

The rebellion sourcebook has a 30ktn J3 bulk carrier, and Power Projection has a 50Ktn modular freighter. They seem about right for the max size in the marches.
The upper limit would be ships big enough to have a 100,000T internal cargo hold or be able to carry 50,000 externally.

Aside: This illustrates why a writer should be careful about what absolute statements he makes. I'm not saying that an upper limit of a couple of hundred thousand dTons isn't workable, but there really was no need to establish it. A comment about such ships being tied up with contracts for delivery years in advance, or the funds to charter such a ship being unavailable would have been sufficient. Most especially there was no need to make a statement that covered the entire Marches. Jump-1 hyper-freighters operating between between Rhylanor and Porozlo wouldn't have been able to help out anyway.
I imagine that there are certain main routes with the large bulk freighters 50-30ktn and the large liners (Rhylanor, Glisten, Lunion subsectro, Mora, Trin) slightly smaller bulk vessels 30-10ktn out to the other important worlds like Jewell, Efate, Regina, Aramis etc. Then stuff drops down to the Tukera sized freighters, the Class M liners and the smaller shippers.
Using the rules from Far Trader, the greatest trade volume available is 12 (giving 100-500 million tons per year), and that's very hard to reach. Assuming a route that only takes two jumps to cover, a regular freighter can make 8.75 round trips per year (35 jumps per year). Assuming ships with a cargo capacity of 100,000T, each ship can carry 437,500T of cargo each way every year. Let's assume the cargo capacity is just a tad bigger and make it 500,000 per year. If so, you'd need 1000 of those hyperfreighters to carry all the goods.

Without actually checking, I'm pretty confident that the highest BTN in the Marches is 'only' 11, giving a trade volume of 10-50 million tons. Rhylanor and Porozlo has that.

Mora and Rhylanor has a BTN of 10.5, or 5-10 million tons per year. However, the distance is four jumps (Cheapest route is probably Rhylanor to Somem via Gitosy (two jump-3), transshipping at Somem, and Somem to Mora via Rorise (two jump-2)). Assuming ships with a cargo capacity of 50,000, you need somewhere between 230 and 460 ships to carry that (Yes, I know that jump-3 ships will have smaller cargo holds than jump-2 ships of the same tonnage; either there will be more jump-2 ships or the jump-3 ships will be bigger; I'm just making a rough guesstimate here).


Hans
 
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Currency isn't wealth. It's promisory notes. If there's nothing to spend it on, it's worthless.
A promisory note is interest bearing; instead currency is a declared value in and of itself, backed up by it's weight in Tigress Batrons.

Which is the real conundrum... what to 10 billion people do when all the manufacturing is automated?

Build Superdreadnaughts.
 
A promisory note is interest bearing...
Not necessatily. Currency notes aren't, for instance.

...instead currency is a declared value in and of itself
Try getting a Comfederate bank note cashed anywhere. You might sell it as an antique, but as currency it's worth nothing whatsoever. A currency note is worth something only because people believe they can get other people to provide them with goods or services in exchange for it.


Hans
 
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Just my take.

On a world feeding 10 billion plus, unless there are fertile worlds in system, food is going to be a constant issue. Add in foods common in other systems, but not native and there is a huge market.

While there are technologies to supplement the need for open space, agriculture is very land intensive.

Add elements and compounds that by definition are more common on some worlds, and less common on others, and I have always though the need for commerce is grossly understaed by most players.

I see a mufti tier system. Along the major trade routes are huge haulers that have absolutely the bare minimum drives, comps fuel and personal requirements to move freight along to the next system in the loop. just as with the large container ships we have, they port JUST long enough to load unload and fuel, and jump again. The crew spends all of the jump doing the routine maintenance so that downtime for annual maintenance is kept to a minimum.

These haulers are outside the 100d jump limit, so that no fuel is carried or time is wasted moving into the jump shadow and back out.

That is where the 1000 credits per dt applies.

Those routes rely on highly standardized, cargo containers, and cargo that is the same loads month in and month out. The ship are very standardized, with bare minimum equipment and there fore repetitively cheep to build and maintain, and kept in service as absolutely long as they are space worthy. Being so far from the planets they serve, meand that anyone not actively involved in their operation probably never sees them personally, although they would certainly make good backdrops in vid and promotional advertizing.

They are also exclusively owned and operated by the Mega corps. They are served by a huge fleet of lashes, tugs, and insystem craft flowing to and from high-ports situated above the major ground terminals of each populated world in the system. They should account for maybe 60 to 70% of the cargo in transit along the main trade routes.

NO regional hauler has any access whatsoever to this traffic, although some of the in system transport MIGHT be contracted out.

As far as subbies and independents are concerned, this is cargo that might as well not exist, becuase they will NEVER see a piece of it.

Off the routes big enough to support the hyper haulers, the regional carriers would have a smaller network of smaller ships to haul to the feeder worlds.

Of the remaining traffic along the mains, most of it would be regional haulers carrying loads that are not consistent month in and month out. Priorities, overstocks, specialty orders, etc.

Again the bulk of that cargo will be standing contracts at the given imperial standard rate.

The small fraction left, (still significant to the smaller freight lines, and the independents, are the one off cargo, there will be smaller producers that can't or won't contract the Megas and the feeder lines. There will be small runs that are not viable for steady contracts, special orders, small priority contracts, and loads that just can't be routed through the normal process.

None of this cargo is handled through the megas, and I have always believed are NOT subject to to the Imperial subsidized common carrier fee.

The Imperiam guarantees that you can ship for a set price through the Megas and the feeders for that standard rate. shipping outside that system is NOT common carriage and prices are negotiated.

This means that a pc craft will virtually never even have access to a standard price cargo, and must negotiate every single cargo. Most of these cargos would be speculative, but there should be enough small cargos that are low priority that are not going to pay much above standard rate that there should never be a ship in transit that can not fill their cargo space except on the tiniest words.

The same applies to passengers. There are huge terminals run by the Megas and the feeders, that run passengers like cattle for the published prices of passage. Those passengers are mostly going to fly the established route. You are not going to book a trip, and by a formal passage unless you already know you have transport booked. You are NOT going to wander around with a ticket and then go into the slums looking for somebody that will honor it.

So. The pcs will have opportunities, but they have to scrabble to recruit them, and price will ALWAYS be a matter of negotiation, and haulers will often have to accept loads at or below the Imperial rate, although rates above the Imperial are also possible.

The Megas make money in volume. Their overhead per ton is FAR below what anyone else can mach, and they are the only ones that can make money at the Imperial rate.

Subbies are subsidized by the worlds they serve to make money at that same Imperial rate.

The independents are on their own, and while the savey ones can make the connections to make money, the less skilled, lucky and connected lose their shirts.

The net result is you have a big ship universe, but PCs NEVER interact with it, or even see it. It is window dressing, although merchie characters that served the Meags before they retired would have been in that system.

The other fear people have with a big ship universe is teh navy.

I don't care what size ships you deal with, a mercie that has a direct encounter with a capital ship is a dead merchi. You will NEVER encounter one under normal circumstances, and if you meet up with one at the business end your chances of living to telll the story are virtually non-existent.

The places a pc is going to interact with large ships, are as passengers on large liners, or tucked into cargo on the large haulers. Again, hijacking those cargos would vertually never be profitable, and hijacking the ship would never work. If you had the resources to process such a ship in any way, you would have the resources a mega corp behind you, and those resources would not be idle waiting for the opportunity to hijack the ship.

By the same token, those ships would never leave the mains, and so never be in a system that was not well defended against piracy. There is not transit across the jump shadow and no high velocity maneuver more than a few light seconds from help.

I could even be comfortable with a main drive that is less than 1 gee. There is no need to move any further than the jump shadow of the terminal, and even at sub G acceleration the transit time would be negligible. Less drive equals less cost in drives, and maintenance, and fuel, increasing capacity even more.

Lots of detail, but then I have been considering these issues for many years,.
 
Excellent post MR TEK - matches my TU's pretty well.

Large merchant ships have factored into my games, though, quite a bit. They are great places to stash things in - especially automated ones. And, though I've never done a dungeon crawl with one - they have featured in more than one chase scenario - grav bike's being a favorite.

They also make nice diversions and political tool-pieces - especially when delivering critical foodstuffs. One should never underestimate the market value of food - both as necessity and luxury...
 
Not necessatily. Currency notes aren't, for instance.

Promissory Note: agreement to pay money: a signed agreement promising payment of a sum of money on demand or at a specific time.

Currency: Money.

Fiat Money: money decreed by government: paper money that a government declares to be legal tender although it is not based on or convertible into commodity and therefore depends on government decree to determine its value.



Try getting a Confederate bank note cashed anywhere. You might sell it as an antique, but as currency it's worth nothing whatsoever. A currency note is worth something only because people believe they can get other people to provide them with goods or services in exchange for it.

Why would people believe such a thing? Certainly there is no precedent for that!
 
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Promissory Note: agreement to pay money: a signed agreement promising payment of a sum of money on demand or at a specific time.

Currency: Money.

Fiat Money: money decreed by government: paper money that a government declares to be legal tender although it is not based on or convertible into commodity and therefore depends on government decree to determine its value.
I suggest you do a little research or ask an economist. A piece of paper with printing on it has no intrinsic value. Its only value lies in the goods and services it can be exchanged for.


Hans
 
Promissory Note: agreement to pay money: a signed agreement promising payment of a sum of money on demand or at a specific time.
It's really beside the point. Currency is not wealth. If a some Travellers were to find themselves stranded on a barren, lifeless world, they could all be trillionaires: As long as there are no ships around, they are going to starve or freeze. This is an extreme example, but it should illustrate the point.
 
I suggest you do a little research or ask an economist. A piece of paper with printing on it has no intrinsic value. Its only value lies in the goods and services it can be exchanged for.


Hans

All of those are official economic definitions. "Intrinsic value" is not. A medium of exchange is just that, it is what it is.
 
It's really beside the point. Currency is not wealth. If a some Travellers were to find themselves stranded on a barren, lifeless world, they could all be trillionaires: As long as there are no ships around, they are going to starve or freeze. This is an extreme example, but it should illustrate the point.

That anecdote is a reductio ad absurdum argument; in a macroecon sense, currency is wealth, part of your financial capital.
 
Indeed it is. So?

It negates it's relevance; the topic at hand is large merchant fleets, to use a current example, do you think the BRD's large currency reserves are a sign of poverty? I do not, and the idea of an export economy, is highly relevant to the idea of high pop industrialized worlds.
 
That would also be automated.

I have the same question, what do people do for a living? Factories are already heavily automated now. I have quite a few classmates who's job is to watch over the robots; building dreadnaughts is one way to use resources, give people something to do (even if it's just reading a magazine while the robots work) and provide a spectacle of power which people love.
 
IMTU, my presumption is that bigger population high-tech worlds generally import LESS per capita than smaller ones; as the world gets more and more self-capable, the slowness of jump trade casuses it to take a backseat to suborbital and local system trade.

This, in fact, mirrors what happened with the US as its population burgeoned in the late 19th Century - it became self-sufficient, and luxuries became the dominant import. (And then we got a paradigm shift in the early 20th century, that skyrocketed our international trade again, thanks to one innovation... Telegraph Cables... and being able to verify that what you ordered was (1) in stock, (2) on the ship, and (3) paid for before being shipped. The mechanics of Jump Drive prevent that for inter-system trade. Intra-system, except in some exceptional systems, is likely to be comparatively much faster turn around. And lower shipping costs than outsystem.
Which suggests that - at least IYTU - if ansibles were introduced (as per my Ansibles in Traveller article of a few issues back), you'd see interstellar trade skyrocket, on the same basis.
 
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