Starships Comparative Potential Mercantile Revenue

[AnotherDilbert]

Because it's easier to fence the cargo than it is to fence the ship.

Then why is the Corsair specifically set up to swallow and transport entire ships?

 

[Grav_Moped]

Then why is the Corsair specifically set up to swallow and transport entire ships?

Because Traveller was originally a simulation of science fiction, not a simulation through science fiction.

Sci-Fi had space pirates, so Traveller needed space pirates. Whether piracy wrecked the economics of interstellar trade didn't figure into it, nor whether piracy was even a viable line of work.

Note that the only canon ships it could hold are the Scout/Courier and the XBoat, neither of which were likely to carry much by way of cargo. Ok, maybe the Seeker variant of the Scout/Courier could carry 35Td, tops... but seriously, you built a 600Td 400Td war craft to seize small ships full of rocks?

(There's so much else wrong with that design -- how much time do you have? )

 

[Condottiere]

Mobile chop shop.

It's probably safer and more profitable to sell the spaceship for parts.

 

[whartung]

People think that Jump Drives and Maneuver Drives are chock full of +5 Hand Wavery, but then they think about Piracy and learn they really need +10 Hand Wavery.

 

[kilemall]

Guess it boils down to the probability of encountering pirates, and what the outcome is.

What is the outcome with pirates? Loss of cargo? Loss of reputation?

That would be a curious mechanic. The more times you're hit by pirates, the lower your score becomes and you get less passengers. As you get more safe flights under your belt, the impact diminishes and the passengers start showing up again.

I ask about the impact of the pirates simply because if they don't take the cargo, if they damage the ship, then that's pretty much financial ruin right there. It's difficult for me to envision any scenario where a merchant would not relinquish the cargo in lieu of taking random damage to their ship, at least for the small Free Traders we typically talk about.

It's rare that cargos are valued in the MCr range compared to damage to a ship, which is in the MCr range.

Ship combat is simply cost prohibitive.

All agreed, except for the cargo cost issues.


If you go by the CT speculation table, 13 of the 36 possible cargo types cost Cr100000 or more per ton.



5 of the 13 are the spare parts 1Dx5 type, so minor cargos, and the rest 1D in number, so the incidental ones. But it it is highly likely at least 1 and probably 2 of the cargos are going to easily be CR300000-2000000 range ones.


That's assuming generic cargo runs a similar percentage to speculative cargos, they may not, but should be indicative of a general trend of at least 30% of cargos being in the big money category.


As to the point of how to valuate piracy risk as 'cost of doing business', all very subjective at this point, I'm looking more to highlight that the original version of the trader subgame had a significant risk built into the higher value high pop high tech runs that the merchant had to 'level up' to. The later 'sim' versions where pirates are more likely at C starports kind of skews the risk/reward play.



Offhand comment, if you roll reaction on every ship encounter, could be the patrol vessels are more a threat if somehow they get a hostile roll! Type C hostility would be the worst in most CT encounter instances.

 

[robject]

We'll have a "Coupon Day"

In case this wasn't mentioned:

Remember that the referee is free to fill your ship with passengers. If the ship's captain announces reduced price tickets in order to fill spaces, the referee might bite. (Anything's better than shipping air).

I assume this applies mainly to low and middle passage. High passage is probably resistant to "coupon day".

 

[kilemall]

People think that Jump Drives and Maneuver Drives are chock full of +5 Hand Wavery, but then they think about Piracy and learn they really need +10 Hand Wavery.

Hmm, not anymore ridiculous then old school sailing ship piracy.


Plenty of people that would be interested in cutrate high tech goods or resources.

 

[robject]

In light of my above comment, I design ships differently than I did even a couple months ago:

1. Max out low berths based on the rule systems' predicted "high water mark".

2. Have plenty of standard staterooms, again per the rule system predictions. Slightly more than the average.

3. Have an average number of high passage accommodations.


For cargo, again it's extremely important to go by predicted averages based on the ruleset you're using. I allocate for guaranteed cargo. Unused space then gets divided up however...

 

[robject]

The corsair is an armed ship, most commonly used by pirates or privateers to raid merchant spacecraft.

why is the Corsair specifically set up to swallow and transport entire ships?

The [Xboat Tender's] large ship bay allows most smaller ships to be enveloped and then boarded at the pirate's leisure.

Options.

MISSION: Privateer

Job: capture ships. Lots of support. Somewhat like a mini-war. Swallowing ships whole is a Thing.

What is the outcome with pirates?

MISSION: Pirate

Job: fast money. Avoid damage. No killing. You have no (reliable) support.

Fastest money BY FAR is targeting ships that likely have small craft, and taking the small craft.

I note that Vargr corsairs DO have a "reputation" mechanic, based on successful piracy.


MISSION: Q-Ship

The threat of damage is why Traders don't fight, and why Corsairs only attack if they think they have the upper hand.

Hence the Q-Ship.

 

[WizWom]

By enumeration I get this distribution for 3D-2D, truncated to 10 to make it visible:


It makes sense to me; it centers around 3.5 (the average unbounded roll) but is asymmetric since all low values are concentrated into 0.

0 has the same frequency as 7+; 22.15%. It would be symmetric if low values were not raised to 0.

	36	216	1296	7776
	D-D	2D-D	2D-2D	3D-2D
0	21	35	441	735
1	5	21	210	616
2	4	25	193	770
3	3	27	166	881
4	2	27	130	935
5	1	25	86	920
6	0	21	35	826
7	0	15	20	680
8	0	10	10	525
9	0	6	4	376
10	0	3	1	245
11	0	1	0	141
12	0	0	0	70
13	0	0	0	35
14	0	0	0	15
15	0	0	0	5
16	0	0	0	1
	36	216	1296	7776

D-D & 2D-D are exhaustive. 2D-2D and 3D-2D are combinatorial from them.
I will recheck my maths.
Oh, I see my error... I forgot to account for negatives in D-D and 2D-D.

 

[kilemall]

Mobile chop shop.

It's probably safer and more profitable to sell the spaceship for parts.

THIS.


Starship drives 'travel well' in terms of percentage of value cost by shipping, often worth more then a million credits per ton. Even at used and cutrate pirated, they are going to be premium items.


Don't forget the computers too, similar situation.


Not to mention there is going to be a whole backend support structure for pirates without access to full starport maintenance. They are likely to just replace a whole drive rather then fiddle with repairs. The commonality of letter drives and plants will be desirable.

 

[robject]

Not to mention there is going to be a whole backend support structure for pirates without access to full starport maintenance.

This is, I believe, the root assumption that affects how piracy works in any particular game.

Is there any logistical support for piracy?

There probably is -- after all, legitimate businessmen and all that.

So, sure, I can see chop shops.


I do think that small craft are the real movers, though, with fewer complications.

 

[AnotherDilbert]

Oh, I see my error... I forgot to account for negatives in D-D and 2D-D.

I get:

1D-1D:



2D-1D:



2D-2D:



Your 1D-1D and 2D-1D looks correct to me?

 

[WizWom]

In case this wasn't mentioned:

Remember that the referee is free to fill your ship with passengers. If the ship's captain announces reduced price tickets in order to fill spaces, the referee might bite. (Anything's better than shipping air).

I assume this applies mainly to low and middle passage. High passage is probably resistant to "coupon day".

An excellent point.
Elasticity of demand is the key here: how many more people will wish to travel if the price drops to "X" CBills?
We have some information for calculating elasticity of demand from the increase in ridership of Mid over high.

ε = ΔQ/ΔP

The demand elastcity in the passenger table seems to be meant to be about 1D more per 2000 drop in price. Of course if you offer a discounted high passage to mid price, then you could just use the mid chart for the dice and the high destination bonuses.

 

[WizWom]

Er, revamping
3D-2D gets 4+ exactly 50% of the time. It gets '3' 10% of the time, '2' 9.4%, and '1' 8.3% and '0' (or less) 22% of the time.

3D-2D gets 4+ slightly over 60% of the time....

Pass.	Chance	Revenue	Expected
*omitted*

Thus, the expected revenue for the 4 staterooms in a minimalist ship is:

Pass.	Chance	Revenue	Expected
HHHH	50.0%	40	20
HHHM	7.8%	38	2.967618789
HHH0	2.2%	30	0.666402321
HHMM	6.6%	36	2.364352924
HHM0	0.8%	28	0.221571478
HH00	2.1%	20	0.418637355
HMMM	5.0%	34	1.708748905
HMM0	0.8%	26	0.205744944
HM00	0.7%	18	0.126160087
H000	1.9%	10	0.185396543
MMMM	11.1%	32	3.543209877
MMM0	2.2%	24	0.533121856
MM00	2.1%	16	0.334909884
M000	1.9%	8	0.148317234
0000	4.9%	0	0
	1		33.4241922

This compares with the kCr10.5 to have the 4 staterooms and have a steward in his own half stateroom. So, expected net revenue is kCr22.9 for 18 dTons.

 

[AnotherDilbert]

This compares with the kCr10.5 to have the 4 staterooms and have a steward in his own half stateroom. So, expected net revenue is kCr22.9 for 18 dTons.

Now deduct the average about kCr 9 in life support costs, and the staterooms are less profitable than cargo...

 

[AnotherDilbert]

This compares with the kCr10.5 to have the 4 staterooms and ...

Note that mortgage cost can be reduced slightly by using a standard design.

I assume most small traders are standard designs.

 

[robject]

I assume most small traders are standard designs.

Quoted for truth. Customization is for plot devices and player motivation.

 

[kilemall]

I do think that small craft are the real movers, though, with fewer complications.

More importantly then that, I think the small craft ARE the pirates most of the time.


Higher-Gs, lower entry, more build starports, easier maintenance. Organizationally and logistically attached to mother ships that don't risk the closing and boarding.


Hmm, now that I am looking around, thinking the Type M is the perfect mothership. Plenty of staterooms for crew, boarding types, low berths for Frozen Watch or ransom on ice, space for cargo and hosting the small craft that do the work. J-3 range so a lot more flexibility in operations. And of course ubiquitous and usually not heavily armed, and innocuous once repurposed.

 

[WizWom]

Now deduct the average about kCr 9 in life support costs, and the staterooms are less profitable than cargo...

The 22.9kCr/jump is AFTER deducting the 10.5kCr in stateroom operation costs and salaries.
I did not include the cost of the 8.5 SR in the mortgage, that would be 0.8*4250000/240 or 7083/jump.

Conclusion: they came up with shipping costs out of their rear ejection port, and never really analyzed the situation. Likewise for drive and component costing.