Starships Comparative Potential Mercantile Revenue

[Condottiere]

Open unroofed spacecraft wouldn't need an integral airlock, or waste time opening it.

 

[Enoki]

A sticking point for me and one I use house rules on, is that the higher the ship's jump drive, the less it makes per passenger or ton of cargo.

Why? Because fuel takes up space and costs money. At least through MT, cargo and passengers are charged a fixed fee per jump not for the range jumped. Yes, the time in jump is the same but the higher the jump number the more fuel that is used and the less cargo and passengers the ship can handle for a given tonnage.

As for corsairs and piracy, I run this more like a cross between Vikings and merchant raiders / high seas piracy. That is, pirates often operate in small fleets of ships (4 to 6) that are a mix of purpose built and prizes. They carry enough 'troops' to easily raid a low pop moderate tech world as well as take on the stray merchant ship operating independently.
In high piracy areas, I allow for convoys of merchants to form, be it just merchant captains grouping up, or a more formal government / military escort being provided.
Pirates operating that way could easily chop shop a captured ship. They might even carry the necessary equipment in one of theirs to do it on the spot efficiently and quickly.
The Viking raid part is fun because you can have the players on some nothing world doing what they're doing when the pirates show up and all of a sudden they're in the middle of a small war with the pirates having ships in orbit preventing them from easily running.

 

[Grav_Moped]

A sticking point for me and one I use house rules on, is that the higher the ship's jump drive, the less it makes per passenger or ton of cargo.

Why? Because fuel takes up space and costs money. At least through MT, cargo and passengers are charged a fixed fee per jump not for the range jumped. Yes, the time in jump is the same but the higher the jump number the more fuel that is used and the less cargo and passengers the ship can handle for a given tonnage.

...

Yeah, the CT generic-freight rules are known to be broken. They work for the Type A, and the Type R (if it's built with the correct drives, or subsidized), but force the Type M to be subsidized. They do not work for J-2 or higher ships, or ships with more than 200Td of cargo capacity. It's a universe where everything moves at Jump-1, maybe Jump-2 if you're a vertically-integrated corporation transporting your own goods.

I'd assume that reasonably-efficient cargo haulers (that is, without excessive weaponry or superfluous carried small craft) of most Jump capabilities can charge high enough rates to cover their costs. The available amount of cargo that's worth the additional cost is inversely proportional to the cost increase, though. And it's usually pretty interesting stuff (i.e., shipping containers just filled with adventure hooks).

I mean, there's probably a perfectly legitimate reason someone is willing to pay you most of a megacredit to haul 50 tons of "Whatever you do, don't open the crates" to somewhere 5 parsecs away, and needs it there by next week. Perfectly legitimate, yeah. Don't worry about it.

If you're running a 600Td Shugushaag freighter, that's every single trip.

 

[Condottiere]

It's usually trying to figure out the actual costs involved, over a specified time period.

You can write off five eighths of the volume if you operate a factor five jump drive passenger liner, compared to one eighths for a factor one, but it would take you probably six times longer to get to five parsecs, for let's say three time more the cargo.

But then you also need to have the demand to justify maintaining a non stop five parsec route on a regular schedule.

 

[Fovean]

Yeah, the CT generic-freight rules are known to be broken. They work for the Type A, and the Type R (if it's built with the correct drives, or subsidized), but force the Type M to be subsidized. They do not work for J-2 or higher ships, or ships with more than 200Td of cargo capacity. It's a universe where everything moves at Jump-1, maybe Jump-2 if you're a vertically-integrated corporation transporting your own goods.

What would happen if the rates for Jump1 in RAW were simply multiplied by the travel distance? Anyone ever run numbers on that?

 

[AnotherDilbert]

What would happen if the rates for Jump1 in RAW were simply multiplied by the travel distance? Anyone ever run numbers on that?

Way too profitable at medium jump range.

 

[Grav_Moped]

It's usually trying to figure out the actual costs involved, over a specified time period.

You can write off five eighths of the volume if you operate a factor five jump drive passenger liner, compared to one eighths for a factor one, but it would take you probably six times longer to get to five parsecs, for let's say three time more the cargo.

But then you also need to have the demand to justify maintaining a non stop five parsec route on a regular schedule.

The Jump-5 Shug I talked about needs to make around 850K every jump, on about 50 tons of payload (working from memory).

To best cover costs, you need to always jump at ship's maximum range. This probably means long-jump ships get locked into a given pair of worlds.

 

[Grav_Moped]

Way too profitable at medium jump range.

But inevitable in a per-jump rate universe.
Per-jump resolves into almost all traffic being jump-1 since at 1k/ton, nothing else covers its costs at J2 or higher until TL 15 at 5000Td. And at that rate, nothing covers its costs above J2.

And if everything moves at J1, then per-jump IS per-parsec.

Linear per-parsec overcompensates J2 and J3, and vastly under-compensates J4 and up.

 

[boomslang]

Linear per-parsec overcompensates J2 and J3, and vastly under-compensates J4 and up.

Which has always worked for me IMTU; at average stellar densities, Jump-4 or more is a high-end luxury or a strategic application -- most commercial traffic is quite content raking in that sweet Jump-2 per parsec revenue.


Excessive profits are easily eaten up by insurance premiums and corsairs and market recessions.

 

[Condottiere]

For shorter distances you could get away with lower qualified crews, and lower scaled salaries.

Whereas for a five parsec non stop route, you probably will employ the elite pilots, engineers, and astrogators.

 

[Grav_Moped]

For shorter distances you could get away with lower qualified crews, and lower scaled salaries.

Whereas for a five parsec non stop route, you probably will employ the elite pilots, engineers, and astrogators.

Necessary in later rule versions, doesn't matter in LBB2 / LBB5 except as setting chrome by referee fiat.

 

[WizWom]

I've been using this chart: there is a slight bonus for faster speed

Cost	Jump speed of ship
Dist	1​	2​	3​	4​	5​	6​
1​	800​
2​	1600​	1640​
3​	2400​	2440​	2520​
4​	3200​	3280​	3320​	3440​
5​	4000​	4080​	4160​	4240​	4400​
6​	4800​	4920​	5040​	5080​	5200​	5400 ​

An analysis of cost to run a ship lead to the obvious conclusion that no one _could_ run a Type A2 Far Trader or Type M Liner at a profit. And although there is no Canon J4 design for trade routes, They would be worse than type M.

Chart is cost for Low Passage or per ton of Cargo. High passage is 10x listed price, Mid is 8x.

Analysis: 1000 per pc provides a little profit, 1200 plenty to allow ships to run short jumps or empty occasionally.
Base per PC 800 with a multiplier provides longer range ships with better profits, but less certainty.

Using this table, the Far trader can make a little profit doing J2 runs, about 30k/jump, if they fill their staterooms.
Type M is iffy on J2, and profits on J3. 400 ton hypothetical J4 likewise can profit on 4Pc and is iffy on 3.

 

[aramis]

An analysis of cost to run a ship lead to the obvious conclusion that no one _could_ run a Type A2 Far Trader or Type M Liner at a profit. And although there is no

The "Basal" value is, mean+1σ, median+1σ, or min+2σ... These do not include the markup of over full load expense that exists on Bk2-81 J1 costs.
The passage costs listed also do not include the markup. these are costs.

​

J1 TL9​

J1 TL13​

J1 TL15​

J2 TL11​

J2 TL13​

J2 TL15​

J3 TL12​

J3 TL13​

J3 TL15​

J4 TL13​

J4 TL15​

J5 TL14​

J5 TL15​

J6 TL15​

200

988​

880​

775​

2068​

1753​

1460​

4138​

3329​

2636​

6901​

5038​

26629​

11976​

210376​

400

892​

793​

697​

1814​

1533​

1237​

3407​

2740​

2158​

5157​

3790​

13010​

7610​

25921​

600

850​

755​

650​

1656​

1396​

1153​

3083​

2479​

1912​

4485​

3234​

9977​

6220​

16535​

800

845​

752​

661​

1603​

1350​

1099​

2937​

2329​

1827​

4195​

3043​

8863​

5531​

13798​

1000

814​

723​

634​

1543​

1285​

1057​

2763​

2221​

1721​

3875​

2863​

7639​

5082​

11372​

1200

854​

760​

669​

1612​

1358​

1111​

2852​

2287​

1787​

4029​

2959​

8296​

5340​

12619​

1400

844​

751​

660​

1594​

1342​

1098​

2843​

2261​

1765​

4007​

2913​

8090​

5227​

12466​

1600

837​

740​

650​

1573​

1324​

1089​

2800​

2229​

1739​

3927​

2859​

7842​

5147​

11865​

1800

831​

739​

645​

1564​

1315​

1082​

2782​

2229​

1728​

3892​

2835​

7830​

5083​

11625​

2000

823​

731​

638​

1558​

1303​

1071​

2754​

2206​

1711​

3841​

2818​

7665​

4992​

11267​

Max

988​

880​

775​

2068​

1753​

1460​

4138​

3329​

2636​

6901​

5038​

26629​

11976​

210376​

Mean

857.8​

762.4​

667.9​

1658.5​

1395.9​

1145.7​

3035.9​

2431​

1898.4​

4430.9​

3235.2​

10584.1​

6220.8​

33784.4​

Median

844.5​

751.5​

655​

1598.5​

1346​

1098.5​

2847.5​

2274​

1776​

4018​

2936​

8193​

5283.5​

12542.5​

Min

814​

723​

634​

1543​

1285​

1057​

2754​

2206​

1711​

3841​

2818​

7639​

4992​

11267​

Std Dev (σ)

50.4​

45.5​

41.7​

163.6​

143.5​

121.8​

435.8​

356​

292.1​

956.3​

698.3​

5872.8​

2174.2​

62206.4​

Basal

895​

797​

697​

1762​

1490​

1220​

3283​

2630​

2068​

4974​

3634​

14066​

7458​

46327​

 

[aramis]

Part 2: HG passage costs (both SO = single occupancy, and the "illegal" in the 3I double occupancy)

MP SO

6690​

6295​

5892​

10187​

9090​

8001​

16321​

13687​

11421​

23141​

17736​

59809​

33159​

189917​

MP DO

4369​

4170​

3967​

6132​

5579​

5030​

9224​

7896​

6754​

12662​

9937​

31146​

17712​

96732​

HP SO

8283​

7740​

7187​

13080​

11575​

10081​

21495​

17882​

14773​

30852​

23437​

81158​

44596​

259658​

HP DO

5962​

5615​

5262​

9025​

8064​

7110​

14398​

12091​

10106​

20373​

15638​

52495​

29149​

166473​

(and I discovered there's a markdown 10,000 byte limit on each post.)

I will note that these are based upon 1 turret, a mail hold, and standard crewing.

 

[Straybow]

Traveller ship construction is comparable to aircraft construction costs of $500k-$1000k per register ton (about 5 per Td). Compare to cruise ship construction costs in the $5k-$10k per register ton.

Meanwhile, Traveller passenger rates are comparable to cruise ship rates. Cruise ships charge around $50/m² per day, while airplanes charge around $100/m² per hour. Airframe construction is 100 times higher, and space utilization is around 50 times greater (not counting cargo for either the ship or the airplane).

Traveller construction costs should be somewhat lower. Starships are made of thick base metal rather than cardboard-thin lightweight alloys. Cost for hull and non-engineering equipment would be about one tenth as much. Cargo rates would run about Cr7500 per Td at "standard" loading of roughly 5 tons, or Cr1600 per ton for greater loads.

Passenger rates for occupancy similar to train sleeper rooms (quadruple occupancy with a bathroom shared by multiple rooms) might be in the Cr8k range. Higher class room with private bath might cost up to double that rate. Premier rooms, larger with fine amenities and concierge service, might cost 3-4 times that base rate.

Steerage could be cubicles similar to first class seats on transoceanic flights, or bunks similar to Japanese sleepers or Fifth Element. Steerage might cost half as much, or less.

In general, construction cost lower and passenger/freight rates higher would actually balance out. The Traveller 1/240 monthly mortgage is actually far lower than what financing would cost over a 40 year contract. That works out to 1.75% interest, which is absurd considering the risks of loss.

 

[aramis]

In general, construction cost lower and passenger/freight rates higher would actually balance out. The Traveller 1/240 monthly mortgage is actually far lower than what financing would cost over a 40 year contract. That works out to 1.75% interest, which is absurd considering the risks of loss.

Only if the risk is borne by capital investors - if it instead is a government incentive in a setting where only the deranged, desperate, or drafted go to space, then the "absurdly low" rate actually works out to be a reasonable kludge... get the desperate and hope that they make it work.

It's worth noting that in the 1970's, both cargo ships and commercial aircraft were getting VERY low rate federal loans on promise to be available and crewed if emergency national needs require... the Civil Aviation Reserve and the US Merchant Marine system had some rather low financing. It was limited and competitive. The non-federally backed aircraft were entered in for favorable access to military and federal civil airlift uses at cost...

Ships in the subsidized merchant marine fleet were subject to recall and activation into the US Navy, regardless of crew status, and USMM card holders were and are subject to forced seconding to either MMR fleet ships whose crews are displaced for not being US MM members, or to USN and USCG ships for emergency crewing. Last I have read of the CRAF being used was following Loma Prieta's big quake; last USMM activations I've read about were WW II era, tho' I've known a few Korean era vets who were between ships and volunteered to take a USN billet for the war effort.

The subsidy contract in the book is an even more extreme incentive...


As Hans, myself, and you discussed in 2012, the money is there to be made, but it's razor thin margins. At TL13, a HG-80 design 200 Td basic box needs to average Cr880 per payload ton. If it can do that... well, at that point, it's making money, and the Captain-Owner or Navigator-Owner is drawing salary, it's making a little bit.
Here's a Bk2 budget box with mail requirements met, including the gunner, turret and laser...

TL9	rating	Td	MCr	Rating
Tonnage	200	200	20
Bridge	—	20	1
JD	a	10	10	1
MD	a	1	4	1
PP	a	4	8	1
Computer	1.5	1	4	2
SR	4	16	2
LowBerth	0	0	0
EmerLB	0	0	0
JFuel		20
PPFuel		10
HP	1	1	0.1	1
Single Turret	1	0	0.2	1
Double Turret	0	0	0	0
Tripple Turret	0	0	0	0
Pulse Laser	1	0	0.5	1
Beam Laser	0	0	0	0
Missile Launcher	0	0	0	0
Sandcaster	0	0	0	0
Vehicle Tons	0	0	0
Cargo		117
		0	49.8
Pilot	1		6000
Nav	0		0
Engineer	1		4000
steward (0)	0		0
Medic	1		2000
Gunners (1)	1		1000
High Pass	0			0
Mid Pass	0			0
Low Pass	0			0
Mail	5			25000
Cargo	112			112000
Monthly Payment			207500
Monthly Fuel	50		25000
Life Support	4		4000
Cryo Support	0		0
Totals	24500		249500	137000
Crew	4
ECT (op cost per payload ton)	137		910.583941605839

And it's J2 variant

TL9	rating	Td	MCr	Rating
Tonnage	200	200	20
Bridge	—	20	1
JD	b	15	20	2
MD	a	1	4	1
PP	b	7	16	2
Computer	1.5	1	4	2
SR	4	16	2
LowBerth	0	0	0
EmerLB	0	0	0
JFuel		40
PPFuel		20
HP	1	1	0.1	1
Single Turret	1	0	0.2	1
Double Turret	0	0	0	0
Tripple Turret	0	0	0	0
Pulse Laser	1	0	0.5	1
Beam Laser	0	0	0	0
Missile Launcher	0	0	0	0
Sandcaster	0	0	0	0
Vehicle Tons	0	0	0
Cargo		79
		0	67.8
Pilot	1		6000
Nav	0		0
Engineer	1		4000
steward (0)	0		0
Medic	1		2000
Gunners (1)	1		1000
High Pass	0			0
Mid Pass	0			0
Low Pass	0			0
Mail	5			25000
Cargo	74			74000
Monthly Payment			282500
Monthly Fuel	100		50000
Life Support	4		4000
Cryo Support	0		0
Totals	-151500		349500	99000
Crew	4
ECT (op cost per payload ton)	99		1765.15151515152

 

[AnotherDilbert]

The Traveller 1/240 monthly mortgage is actually far lower than what financing would cost over a 40 year contract. That works out to 1.75% interest, which is absurd considering the risks of loss.

I get the interest to be about 5%, remember the annuity is based on the full price of the ship, but you only borrow 80%.

Yes, that hints that the loss rate of commercial ships is expected to be low.

 

[Condottiere]

Hull construction costs don't really make sense.

As I understand, you might as well use stainless steel, and sandwich a hole plugger material.

 

[Grav_Moped]

An analysis of cost to run a ship lead to the obvious conclusion that no one _could_ run a Type A2 Far Trader or Type M Liner at a profit. And although there is no Canon J4 design for trade routes, They would be worse than type M.

Yep. Until TL-15, nothing in LBB2 can haul cargo at J-2 and profit at Cr1000/Td/jump -- and the TL-15 ship that does break the Cr1000/Td barrier on J-2, needs to fill 3439Td of payload per trip to do it (the ship's a 5000-tonner).

Which leads to the conclusion that the market supply of freight space at J-2 and above is only what's left over after the rest has been filled with either speculative cargo or essential inputs for products where the end profit justifies carriage at below cost. The latter should be fairly minimal, though, assuming competent corporate management (they'll run their ships as full as possible).

 

[AnotherDilbert]

Yep. Until TL-15, nothing in LBB2 can haul cargo at J-2 and profit at Cr1000/Td/jump -- and the TL-15 ship that does break the Cr1000/Td barrier on J-2, needs to fill 3439Td of payload per trip to do it (the ship's a 5000-tonner).

Don't forget standard design discount, you can make a LBB2 3000 tonner barely profitable at J-2.
And with LBB5 and a dispersed hull 200 Dt, see below.

Which leads to the conclusion that the market supply of freight space at J-2 and above is only what's left over after the rest has been filled with either speculative cargo or essential inputs for products where the end profit justifies carriage at below cost.

Or that major trade routes use different rules than Free Traders...

If we just count costs, J-3 or J-4 is the cheapest way to move cargo long distances.


Barely profitable LBB5 J-2 ship. No Drop Tanks, but Exterior Demountable Tanks

MT-17212R1-000000-00000-0       MCr 42,7         160 Dton
MT-27212R1-000000-00000-0       MCr 42,7         200 Dton
bearing                                            Crew=1
batteries                                           TL=15
                 Cargo=117 Fuel=4 EP=4 Agility=1 DropT=40

Single Occupancy                                  117        53,4
                                     USP    #     Dton       Cost
Hull, Unstreamlined Custom             1          160         
Configuration       Dispersed          7                      8
                                                              
Drop Tanks          40 Dton                                   0,1
Total tonnage       200 Dton                                   
                                                              
Jump Drive                             2    1       6        24
Manoeuvre D         A                  1    1       1         4
Power Plant                            2    1       4        12
Fuel, #J, #weeks    J-2, 4 weeks            2       4         
Purifier                                    1       3         0,0
                                                              
Bridge                                      1      20         0,8
Computer            m/1bis             R    1       1         4
                                                              
Staterooms                                  1       4         0,5
                                                              
Cargo                                             117         
                                                              
Nominal Cost        MCr 53,38            Sum:     117        53,4
Class Cost          MCr 11,21           Valid      ≥0          ≥0
Ship Cost           MCr 42,70                                 
                                                              
                                                              
Crew &               High     0        Crew          Bridge     1
Passengers            Mid     0           1       Engineers     0
                                                              
                                                              
Estimated Economy of Ship     Standard                                   
       Ship price     Down Payment         Mortgage       Avg Filled
        MCr 42,70        kCr 8 541          kCr 178             100%
                                                              
Expenses per jump                       Revenue               
Bank                 Cr 85 408          High           Cr       0
Fuel                 Cr  4 400          Middle         Cr       0
Life Support         Cr  2 000          Low            Cr       0
Salaries             Cr  2 400          Cargo          Cr 115 000
Maintenance          Cr  1 708                                 
Berthing             Cr    160                                 
                                                              
Summa               kCr     96                        kCr     115
                                                              
     Income potential per jump     kCr 19                 
  Yearly yield on down payment      5,5%