Specifically, what I would like is 1) a break down of the 60th and 105th fleets, how many squadrons and ships I can expect insystem at any time before 1116.
Regular IN fleets have 8-10 squadrons of 6-8 ships for an average of 63 ships (or 62½). So much is canon. Of these, I think (based on the FFW countermix) that two or three will be BatRons, six or seven will be CruRons, and there may or may not be a specialist squadron such as a TankRon or an AssRon (excuse me, AssaultRon ;
). A squadron consists of 3 or 4 identical divisions. A division is two identical combat vessels plus whatever auxiliaries such a formation would need. Getting further into speculation territory, other auxiliaries may be attached to HQ, such as half a dozen squadrons of Fleet Couriers, perhaps some jump-4 and jump-2 couriers, lots of transport ships and escorts for same, repair and recovery ships, hospital ships, and no doubt I've forgotten some -- there was a thread about auxiliaries not so long ago.
Many of these ships would stick mostly to the base they're assigned to and wouldn't show up on encounter tables. I do think patrols will be somewhat more powerful than the ones suggested in an early CT book.
I found a passage in Sector Fleets that mentions the Imperium supplementing key systems colonial forces, and it seems reasonable that Lemish would be supplemented, but again, once Lucan's order hits Corridor, those assets would likely evaporate.
The logistical support for those assets would no doubt evaporate, but unless Lucan had thought to mention them explicitly they would be part of the planetary navies and not subject to being removed.
First step is to look over what one has to defend, what else in the system needs protecting. While the bulk of forces would need to patrol between the 100 D limit, the gas giant, and Lemish, there are other rocks out there.
The population of Lemish is so small that it is probably too weak to defend itself (I really can't fathom what the emperor who made Lemish a duchy was thinking).
Rebellion Sourcebook: Lucan issues orders to Corridor on 095-1117. Corridor receives the orders on 221-1117. Fleet assembles at Depot on 242-1117.
Orders arrive at Sector Capital Kaasu on 221-1117. Kouth lies 13 parsecs further spinwards, so orders would not reach it until three weeks later. Assuming the 30th and 31st Fleets are ready to depart at a moment's notice (Yeah, right...), they would move at the speed of their slowest components, probably J3 battleships, so they would reach Depot seven jumps later. I can't see them reach Depot until 298-1117 at the earliest. Those of you with military experience can better judge how likely that sort of promptness is.
"Later that year, several Vargr raiding expeditions made tentative forays into the sector.When they met only minimal opposition, they grew bolder and others followed.
All that is plausible enough. But I think that those tentative forays would be by weak forces against weak targets. And those ships have to move back and forth from Corsair bases. The big cruiser-sized opportunists that show up later would take time to get into the act.
Express boat traffic came to a halt. Merchants ships cancelled their scheduled routes through the sector. By the end of 1117, Corridor was in chaos."
Far far too early for that. X-boat activity might well cease if their budget is cut, but merchants go by safer detours from well-defended system to well-defended system. Transportation becomes more expensive and some ships move elsewhere, but others keep on trucking. By the end of 1117 Corridor would have been getting really worried, that's all.
There are possibly two issues going on here. Not just the fact the Vargr were unstoppable, but likely the panic that set in when the Imperium abandoned Corridor. A couple of initial successes by the Vargr, the idea that things are going so badly with the rest of the galaxy. If I recall there is some mention of some systems simply surrendering.
Small defenseless populations would have to surrender and welcome their new Vargr overlords (For as long as the Vargr stuck around). But the 99% of the population that live on high-population worlds wouldn't panic and it wouldn't change much if they did -- there's no way any significant number of them can leave (the number of millionaires and billionaires and trillionaires might suffer a drastic reduction).
Weyland's 300 population and all but abandoned naval base probably didn't say much when the Vargr arrived. That base alone would be priceless to the Vargr's efforts against Lemish. The possession would also be psychologically shocking to the rest of the sector.
Without logistical support naval bases might have to be abandoned, but hopefully sheer acquisitiveness would make the Khukish System Defense help with the evacuation of personnel and any equipment that wasn't cemented in place. Still, mistakes happen, so if you WANT the Vargr to capture an intact base, an explanation is perfectly possible.
By the time Weyland is taken, Tamilee is under assault and then threatened from Sutton. From Weyland, you can threaten Ginning. It is easy to see how the initial successes would lead to wide spread panic as word got out.
You talk as if the Vargr are mounting a war of conquest. Vargr are plunderers. Once they've taken a place and looted it, why (and how) are they going to stick around and become rulers of the place?
'We have a saying, O Prince, " Kenneth-Hollard said. "That... ah.. novices talk of the clash of arms, and experienced warriors speak of supplies."
"That is true; it cannot be denied!" Kashtiliash agreed.
They not only have wonderful weapons, but they understand how weapons should be used, he thought with relief -- he must tell his father of this. That was the difference between a civilized realm like Babylon and mountain tribesmen or Aramaean sand-thieves; the scribes and storehouses and skilled men to keep bread and beer and salt fish, fresh horses and arrowheads, flowing out to the armies in the field. And the silver to keep soldiers longer than the smell of loot, and the engineers to build fortresses and bridges.' [Against the Tide of Years by S.M. Stirling]
"Vargr speak of glory and plunder; Imperials speak of logistics." [Old IN saying]
Hans
