Merchants Run

[zakrol]

Just to throw a spanner into the works as regards High and Middle passengers...

It was correctly pointed out that the difference in income per ton is 136 Cr. But bear in mind a Steward services 40 t, not 8t so the extra income is 5460 Cr/jump with a wage of 1500 Cr/jump.

It's actually a bit better still when you consider that the extra 0.9 t of cargo space you have with a middle passenger only generates 1000 cr/t rather than 1436.

On the other hand, baggage allowance is a pain so I say get rid of it anyway!

 

[zakrol]

Just to throw a spanner into the works as regards High and Middle passengers...

It was correctly pointed out that the difference in income per ton is 136 Cr. But bear in mind a Steward services 40 t, not 8t so the extra income is 5460 Cr/jump with a wage of 1500 Cr/jump.

It's actually a bit better still when you consider that the extra 0.9 t of cargo space you have with a middle passenger only generates 1000 cr/t rather than 1436.

On the other hand, baggage allowance is a pain so I say get rid of it anyway!

 

[cheepicus]

The passenger numbers also need to include the cost of the berths themselves in order to compare them to cargo. At least for the purposes of paying off the loan.

A cluster of 8 high berths and dedicated steward, doing 25 runs a year at 100% capacity.
Earns: 8*25*8000 = 1.6 MCr
Costs (steward and staterooms) = 3000*12+2000*25+9*12*500000/240 = 311kCr
Tons: 44
Payoff/Ton: 29.3 kCr
High Berth Payoff/T/Jump: 1172 Cr

A cluster of 10 middle berths:
Earns: 10*25*6000 = 1.5 MCr
Costs (staterooms): 10*500000/240*12 = 250kCr
Tons: 41
Payoff/Ton: 30.5 kCr
Middle Berth Payoff/T/Jump: 1220 Cr

100 Low Berths:
Earns: 100*25*1000 = 2.5 MCr
Costs: 100*12*50000/240 = 250 kCr
Tons: 51
Payoff/Ton: 44.1 kCr
Low Berth Payoff/T/Jump: 1765 Cr

 

[cheepicus]

The passenger numbers also need to include the cost of the berths themselves in order to compare them to cargo. At least for the purposes of paying off the loan.

A cluster of 8 high berths and dedicated steward, doing 25 runs a year at 100% capacity.
Earns: 8*25*8000 = 1.6 MCr
Costs (steward and staterooms) = 3000*12+2000*25+9*12*500000/240 = 311kCr
Tons: 44
Payoff/Ton: 29.3 kCr
High Berth Payoff/T/Jump: 1172 Cr

A cluster of 10 middle berths:
Earns: 10*25*6000 = 1.5 MCr
Costs (staterooms): 10*500000/240*12 = 250kCr
Tons: 41
Payoff/Ton: 30.5 kCr
Middle Berth Payoff/T/Jump: 1220 Cr

100 Low Berths:
Earns: 100*25*1000 = 2.5 MCr
Costs: 100*12*50000/240 = 250 kCr
Tons: 51
Payoff/Ton: 44.1 kCr
Low Berth Payoff/T/Jump: 1765 Cr

 

[robject]

Don't forget the initial 20% down, in addition to the payment schedule...

 

[robject]

Don't forget the initial 20% down, in addition to the payment schedule...

 

[cheepicus]

I'm not sure the bank will lend me the down payment

. But, assuming they did:

High berth cluster yearly cost: 313.5kCr
Payoff/T/Trip: 1170Cr

Middle berth cluster yearly cost: 300 kCr
Payoff/T/Trip: 1171Cr

Low berth cluster yearly cost: 300 kCr
Payoff/T/Trip: 1725.5Cr

I wonder if any ship for this challenge can possibly make a profit. I have this suspicion that even on a dream (J2) route they can't actually turn a profit on freight and passengers (and I think almost certainly not on freight alone).

Am I right in assuming a jump takes a flat 7 days, and it takes 7 days to approach, dock, unload, take on new cargo and passengers, and get into position for the next jump? This would fit the 25 trips in 50 weeks, but I'm not sure how the time breaks down, especially time in jump.

 

[cheepicus]

I'm not sure the bank will lend me the down payment

. But, assuming they did:

High berth cluster yearly cost: 313.5kCr
Payoff/T/Trip: 1170Cr

Middle berth cluster yearly cost: 300 kCr
Payoff/T/Trip: 1171Cr

Low berth cluster yearly cost: 300 kCr
Payoff/T/Trip: 1725.5Cr

I wonder if any ship for this challenge can possibly make a profit. I have this suspicion that even on a dream (J2) route they can't actually turn a profit on freight and passengers (and I think almost certainly not on freight alone).

Am I right in assuming a jump takes a flat 7 days, and it takes 7 days to approach, dock, unload, take on new cargo and passengers, and get into position for the next jump? This would fit the 25 trips in 50 weeks, but I'm not sure how the time breaks down, especially time in jump.

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by far-trader:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by rancke:
What point? That the canonical freight and passenger rates are reasonable for jump-2 ships? I don't think you need to prove that to anyone. Certainly not to me.

As I've said you're the first I've not needed to convince as far as I can recall

</font>[/QUOTE]I've figured out why. I forgot that the 'true' freight and passenger rates that I've calculated are based on the assumption that regularly sceduled ships do 35 jumps per year. Obviously that makes them more viable (in this respect) than tramps.

So, sorry for my flippant remark. With 25 jumps per year a jump-2 ship may well have trouble making ends meet.


Hans

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by far-trader:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by rancke:
What point? That the canonical freight and passenger rates are reasonable for jump-2 ships? I don't think you need to prove that to anyone. Certainly not to me.

As I've said you're the first I've not needed to convince as far as I can recall

</font>[/QUOTE]I've figured out why. I forgot that the 'true' freight and passenger rates that I've calculated are based on the assumption that regularly sceduled ships do 35 jumps per year. Obviously that makes them more viable (in this respect) than tramps.

So, sorry for my flippant remark. With 25 jumps per year a jump-2 ship may well have trouble making ends meet.


Hans

 

[robject]

Yep, figure 25 trips a year.

Nope, I don't think any Far Trader can turn a profit.

 

[robject]

Yep, figure 25 trips a year.

Nope, I don't think any Far Trader can turn a profit.

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by robject:
Yep, figure 25 trips a year.

Nope, I don't think any Far Trader can turn a profit.

Not by freight and passengers alone, no. Unless, that is, it is fully paid up. If it is, it is going to do very nicely. That's because the system doesn't say anything about increased maintenance needs and greater risk of system breakdowns.

My vision of the typical free trader ship is one that was employed by a company for 40 years (with 35 jumps per year and reasonable freight and passenger rates ), after which is was sold for 20 or 25% of the original cost. Some former company captain (or crew) scraped together 20% of that figure (i.e. 4 or 5% of the original cost) and got a loan from a bank. They're now jumping around trying to make enough money not only to cover the mortgage, but also gambling that they can scrape together enough money to pay for repairs when the jump drive or power plant goes on the fritz. Those who win that gamble eventually become a fledgeling line; those who lose it go bankrupt and the bank sells the ship to another bunch of optimists.


Hans

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by robject:
Yep, figure 25 trips a year.

Nope, I don't think any Far Trader can turn a profit.

Not by freight and passengers alone, no. Unless, that is, it is fully paid up. If it is, it is going to do very nicely. That's because the system doesn't say anything about increased maintenance needs and greater risk of system breakdowns.

My vision of the typical free trader ship is one that was employed by a company for 40 years (with 35 jumps per year and reasonable freight and passenger rates ), after which is was sold for 20 or 25% of the original cost. Some former company captain (or crew) scraped together 20% of that figure (i.e. 4 or 5% of the original cost) and got a loan from a bank. They're now jumping around trying to make enough money not only to cover the mortgage, but also gambling that they can scrape together enough money to pay for repairs when the jump drive or power plant goes on the fritz. Those who win that gamble eventually become a fledgeling line; those who lose it go bankrupt and the bank sells the ship to another bunch of optimists.


Hans

 

[far-trader]

I have done a major edit of the first post on page 1 of this thread. The final contest specifics for both Phase 1 and Phase 2 are now posted there, with I hope all the questions addressed and some issues clairfied. Please give it a read. I know it's long, I've read it three or four times myself trying to catch all the errors, but it should be a help if you are interested in this contest. Thanks for your time, I stand by for the new questions it will no doubt raise

And I will catch up on the current ones shortly...

 

[far-trader]

I have done a major edit of the first post on page 1 of this thread. The final contest specifics for both Phase 1 and Phase 2 are now posted there, with I hope all the questions addressed and some issues clairfied. Please give it a read. I know it's long, I've read it three or four times myself trying to catch all the errors, but it should be a help if you are interested in this contest. Thanks for your time, I stand by for the new questions it will no doubt raise

And I will catch up on the current ones shortly...

 

[far-trader]

Originally posted by Zakrol:
Just to throw a spanner into the works as regards High and Middle passengers...

Not another one, it's one monkey-wrench after another

Originally posted by Zakrol:
It was correctly pointed out that the difference in income per ton is 136 Cr. But bear in mind a Steward services 40 t, not 8t so the extra income is 5460 Cr/jump with a wage of 1500 Cr/jump.

It's actually a bit better still when you consider that the extra 0.9 t of cargo space you have with a middle passenger only generates 1000 cr/t rather than 1436.

On the other hand, baggage allowance is a pain so I say get rid of it anyway!

Fair points, but I don't want to overcomplicate matters. It seems clear to me the intent is for High Passage to generate more revenue than Middle Passage and the easiest way to do that is ignore the fluff about the baggage allowances. I have my second Motion carried

 

[far-trader]

Originally posted by Zakrol:
Just to throw a spanner into the works as regards High and Middle passengers...

Not another one, it's one monkey-wrench after another

Originally posted by Zakrol:
It was correctly pointed out that the difference in income per ton is 136 Cr. But bear in mind a Steward services 40 t, not 8t so the extra income is 5460 Cr/jump with a wage of 1500 Cr/jump.

It's actually a bit better still when you consider that the extra 0.9 t of cargo space you have with a middle passenger only generates 1000 cr/t rather than 1436.

On the other hand, baggage allowance is a pain so I say get rid of it anyway!

Fair points, but I don't want to overcomplicate matters. It seems clear to me the intent is for High Passage to generate more revenue than Middle Passage and the easiest way to do that is ignore the fluff about the baggage allowances. I have my second Motion carried

 

[far-trader]

Originally posted by Genjuro:
The passenger numbers also need to include the cost of the berths themselves in order to compare them to cargo. At least for the purposes of paying off the loan.

Another good point, and the numbers point out something I noticed very early in my Traveller playing, lowberths are the best thing you can put in for revenue

No need for crew, no worries about hi-jack, and with that low lottery a chance for a little pocket change...

Which raises a point about how low berths will be handled in this exercise per MTU. First, no low lottery, how macabre. The things are really very safe in MTU. Only a roll of 12 on revival presents a problem and an attending Medic grants a -1DM. So any ship with a Medic will never* have a problem.

* barring other issues, such as damage to the casket or an overly long time in it before revival

Originally posted by Genjuro:
I'm not sure the bank will lend me the down payment

Addressed in the new and improved first post

Briefly, you've traded your interest in a type A (from mustering out) for the downpayment and architet fee to join this exercise for the chance to get something better.

Originally posted by Genjuro:


I wonder if any ship for this challenge can possibly make a profit. I have this suspicion that even on a dream (J2) route they can't actually turn a profit on freight and passengers (and I think almost certainly not on freight alone).

I'm convinced it can, since I've done it...

One Proof of Concept

Originally posted by Genjuro:
Am I right in assuming a jump takes a flat 7 days, and it takes 7 days to approach, dock, unload, take on new cargo and passengers, and get into position for the next jump? This would fit the 25 trips in 50 weeks, but I'm not sure how the time breaks down, especially time in jump.

It's closer to 6 days in jump with a half day at each end for space travel. Then 6-7 days berthed conducting business.

I touched briefly on it somewhere, and also in the new and improved first post in this thread.

My take on the transit system to system is a few hours to run to 100d, about 6 days in jump*, and then a few more hours to reach the mainworld from 100d.

Then once berthed the first order of business is offloading passengers and dealing with speculative trade. Speculative trade first because what you buy may influence your choice for your next port of call. Once you decide on your next port of call you announce it and begin attracting passengers and freight. While they trickle in over the 6-7 days in port you have time to offload your freight aboard and take care of fuelling and life support, as well as a hundred other little chores. Then you're off again. And a lucky merchie with a little skill, some credits, and hard work could be filled to capacity early and gain a day or two at each stop enabling more than the standard 25 trips a year.

* Still weighing the flat time idea, I like parts of it but I'm still partial to my old average 6 days with some variance for the actual real-space separation between two systems. For this exercise I'll probably just go with 7 days total transit to simplify.

 

[far-trader]

Originally posted by Genjuro:
The passenger numbers also need to include the cost of the berths themselves in order to compare them to cargo. At least for the purposes of paying off the loan.

Another good point, and the numbers point out something I noticed very early in my Traveller playing, lowberths are the best thing you can put in for revenue

No need for crew, no worries about hi-jack, and with that low lottery a chance for a little pocket change...

Which raises a point about how low berths will be handled in this exercise per MTU. First, no low lottery, how macabre. The things are really very safe in MTU. Only a roll of 12 on revival presents a problem and an attending Medic grants a -1DM. So any ship with a Medic will never* have a problem.

* barring other issues, such as damage to the casket or an overly long time in it before revival

Originally posted by Genjuro:
I'm not sure the bank will lend me the down payment

Addressed in the new and improved first post

Briefly, you've traded your interest in a type A (from mustering out) for the downpayment and architet fee to join this exercise for the chance to get something better.

Originally posted by Genjuro:


I wonder if any ship for this challenge can possibly make a profit. I have this suspicion that even on a dream (J2) route they can't actually turn a profit on freight and passengers (and I think almost certainly not on freight alone).

I'm convinced it can, since I've done it...

One Proof of Concept

Originally posted by Genjuro:
Am I right in assuming a jump takes a flat 7 days, and it takes 7 days to approach, dock, unload, take on new cargo and passengers, and get into position for the next jump? This would fit the 25 trips in 50 weeks, but I'm not sure how the time breaks down, especially time in jump.

It's closer to 6 days in jump with a half day at each end for space travel. Then 6-7 days berthed conducting business.

I touched briefly on it somewhere, and also in the new and improved first post in this thread.

My take on the transit system to system is a few hours to run to 100d, about 6 days in jump*, and then a few more hours to reach the mainworld from 100d.

Then once berthed the first order of business is offloading passengers and dealing with speculative trade. Speculative trade first because what you buy may influence your choice for your next port of call. Once you decide on your next port of call you announce it and begin attracting passengers and freight. While they trickle in over the 6-7 days in port you have time to offload your freight aboard and take care of fuelling and life support, as well as a hundred other little chores. Then you're off again. And a lucky merchie with a little skill, some credits, and hard work could be filled to capacity early and gain a day or two at each stop enabling more than the standard 25 trips a year.

* Still weighing the flat time idea, I like parts of it but I'm still partial to my old average 6 days with some variance for the actual real-space separation between two systems. For this exercise I'll probably just go with 7 days total transit to simplify.