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Trader sizes

In Alaska, fuel speculators fly in fuel oil on spec when some village or another is noted to be running low. They usually make a killing... and a bad name. A few limit themselves to a reasonable markup (costs +10%), and get quite a passable name. Almost all the speculators own their planes (most are financed), tho' a few are charters.

I can see this happening on current day Adak since the security clearance requirement to land has been removed. When I was there, there were many times when there was a shortage of things like milk if the weekly "Milk/Trash Run" plane got delayed due to weather or other factors.
 
I'm green with envy. I've got some data on the medieval period but not much on that period. If you're willing to share tidbits, I'd be thrilled.

There appears to be a number of copies available on Abebooks, including those from print-on-demand publishers. I would recommend that you purchase your own copy, as putting in the time to transcribe a large number of tables has an extremely low priority for me at present.
 
There appears to be a number of copies available on Abebooks, including those from print-on-demand publishers. I would recommend that you purchase your own copy, as putting in the time to transcribe a large number of tables has an extremely low priority for me at present.

Google Books has it since it is in the public domain. You can search for it there and then download a PDF of it. :)

http://books.google.com/books?id=3P...a=X&ei=97IGUbGLH6Xo2QX364DQAw&ved=0CC0Q6AEwAA
 
Your notion of 'plausibility' is based on a single planet... TUs like the OTU are pretty darn large - a bank loan for a far trader could be the equivalent of a loan to a private owner of an 18-wheeler...

Actually, my notion of plausibility is based on the fact that the down payment on a new Free Trader is the equivalent of roughly 20 million or more 2013 US dollars. So, no, it could not be the equivalent of a loan to a private owner of an 18-wheeler (that would be a loan to the owner of a grav van).

However, it seems I was wrong about what risks a bank runs when loaning money to a shipowner. A ship going foreign in the Old Days must be more or less the equivalent of a starship leaving its home system, and if those shipyards that were mentioned in Greylond's reference could do it and expect their captains to keep up payments, I suppose a bank can do it too.

I still wonder how many people have the equivalent of 20 million dollars that they are willing to invest in something as risky as a private tramp ship, but it appears that any who does can get a bank to finance him.

As I said in an aside in a previous post, I still think an older, cheaper, more breakdown-prone ship makes for a better ship for PCs, but that is, as I also said, a different issue.


Hans
 
Well, reading more of the sources that I mentioned you'll see that the Tramp Trade at that time wasn't as risky as you might think. At that time the Tram Trade was arguably the Major form of shipping goods from place to place. So the market(Demand) was there. Of course I'm sure there were some Managers/Owners/Captains who skipped.
 
I apologize for my poor research on finding it online.

Sorry for the additional posts, but I am not allowed to edit my posts. That copy does appear to be a scanned copy of the original, so it does have the "f" used in place of "s", and also lacks the very useful footnotes provided my Mr. Lyman Carrier. I will stick with my extremely old-fashioned, and definitely not high-tech printed version.
 
Well, reading more of the sources that I mentioned you'll see that the Tramp Trade at that time wasn't as risky as you might think. At that time the Tram Trade was arguably the Major form of shipping goods from place to place. So the market(Demand) was there.

I've no doubt that historically tramp trade was not as risky as you may think I was thinking (Though I do suspect that having the backing of a company that could absorb temporary losses would help). But I'm talking about a setting where "Nine out of ten fledgling lines fail within the first five years. Of those remaining, nine out of ten barely break even." [MP:7] Admittedly, the failure rates for Free Traders are not spelled out the same way, but a fledgling line is portrayed as a step up from a Free Trader. I submit that the failure rates must be at the very least in the same ballpark, quite possible a good deal worse.

Of course I'm sure there were some Managers/Owners/Captains who skipped.

But apparently not so many that the gains didn't outweigh losses for financers.


Hans
 
That's assuming they let you go there. High volume port may set limits on how many small ships can land in any given day, in order to encourage larger ships

government/corporation-mandated trade advantage, yes. but since this usually is done in order to faciltate graft and impose taxes and increase profit margins to monopoly levels, this would create more incentive than disincentive for free traders.

example. a far-orbit mining operation may require supply and parts, but getting it via the inner system takes too long and costs too much. so they arrange for their own service.
 
I've no doubt that historically tramp trade was not as risky as you may think I was thinking (Though I do suspect that having the backing of a company that could absorb temporary losses would help). But I'm talking about a setting where "Nine out of ten fledgling lines fail within the first five years. Of those remaining, nine out of ten barely break even." [MP:7] Admittedly, the failure rates for Free Traders are not spelled out the same way, but a fledgling line is portrayed as a step up from a Free Trader. I submit that the failure rates must be at the very least in the same ballpark, quite possible a good deal worse.



But apparently not so many that the gains didn't outweigh losses for financers.


Hans

No problem, this is a good discussion. :)
 
government/corporation-mandated trade advantage, yes. but since this usually is done in order to faciltate graft and impose taxes and increase profit margins to monopoly levels, this would create more incentive than disincentive for free traders.

Ah, yes, the classic all government is evil and corrupt. No possible safety reasons might exist. Oh, I forgot, all companies are corrupt too.
 
Actually, my notion of plausibility is based on the fact that the down payment on a new Free Trader is the equivalent of roughly 20 million or more 2013 US dollars. So, no, it could not be the equivalent of a loan to a private owner of an 18-wheeler (that would be a loan to the owner of a grav van).
Hans

It would be, depending upon method of comparison, between $3 (low end of conversion of Cr1=1977US$1 to 2012US$) and $7 (base level labor hourly wage method in 2012US$) per Cr. And a free trader is MCr37 or so. So, $111M to $259M. Well more than comparable shipping. So the down is between $20M and $50M, and by the best conversion (from inflation calculation) roughly $28M.

Wikipedia:Container Ship said:
Vessel purchases


In recent years, oversupply of container ship capacity has caused prices for new and used ships to fall. From 2008 to 2009, new container ship prices dropped by 19–33%, while prices for 10-year-old container ships dropped by 47–69%.[47] In March 2010, the average price for a geared 500-ton container ship was $10 million, while gearless ships of 6,500 and 12,000 TEU averaged prices of $74 million and $105 million respectively.[48] At the same time, secondhand prices for 10-year-old geared container ships of 500-, 2,500-, and 3,500-TEU capacity averaged prices of $4 million, $15 million, and $18 million respectively.[49]
(en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Container_ship)

Extracting the data, converting using Cr1=2012US$3.7. Cargo by ton converted at 10Tc=1Td; by TEU at 2.75Td=1TEU. Conversions parenthesized.
500Tc(50Td)$10M(MCr2.7)Geared Cargo Ship.
6500TEU(2363Td)$74M(MCr20)Container Wet
12000TEU(4363Td)$110M(MCr29.3)Container Wet
(30TEU)82Td($136.9M)MCr37Type A
(72TEU )200Td($374M)MCr101Type R
(400TEU)1114Td$2723MMCr736.2Type TI
 
Actually, my notion of plausibility is based on the fact that the down payment on a new Free Trader is the equivalent of roughly 20 million or more 2013 US dollars. So, no, it could not be the equivalent of a loan to a private owner of an 18-wheeler (that would be a loan to the owner of a grav van).
Was referring to a percentages analogy - not raw dollars. A bank loan for a FT in the OTU wouldn't be equivalent to RW terrestrial 100 million dollar maritime loans to individuals as FTs are much more numerous - like independently owned semi-rigs are much more numerous in the RW than tramp ships.

As to raw dollar equivalences - there are over 3/4 of a million people in the world with wealth in the 10-50 million USD. ;)
(Source: Credit Sussie Global Wealth Databook 2010)

However, it seems I was wrong about what risks a bank runs when loaning money to a shipowner. A ship going foreign in the Old Days must be more or less the equivalent of a starship leaving its home system, and if those shipyards that were mentioned in Greylond's reference could do it and expect their captains to keep up payments, I suppose a bank can do it too.
Risks are generally inherent in any profitable venture - and banks run the gambit of super conservative to outright careless in the RW. Suspect assumptions of the OTU do not have tramp trader financing being the bulk of banking. Even 100% loss in 1 out of so many loans, the bank could still come out ahead given the repos and remortgages of the 9/10 (or whatever arbitrary percentage is applied to defaulters).

Aside from the ROI, which could easily be lower than other, more secure, loans - banks will factor in the collateral worth. Banks financing the industries that build the starships - from mining to assembly - could see this as the cost of doing business. I worked with billion dollar retail where very low margin goods were the cost of making related high-margin sales. Such as selling lumber at a DIY chain. The markup on furring strips is pretty low - but add in a cordless drill, bits, screws, primer, paint... In many cases, retailers sell loss-leaders. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_leader

I still wonder how many people have the equivalent of 20 million dollars that they are willing to invest in something as risky as a private tramp ship, but it appears that any who does can get a bank to finance him.
Not a large percentage - but even a tiny percentage of a large number of sophonts can be large.

As to Traveller banks just handing out loans based on a down payment - my CT LBB#2 says -
LBB2 2nd ed said:
Bank financing is available to qualified individuals ...
...
In addition, the bank will insist that the purchaser submit an economic plan detailing the projected activity which will guarantee that monthly payments are made. Unless a character has some form of guaranteed income (perhaps large rents from some property he owns), this condition will generally rule out purchases (at least financed purchases) of yachts, military vessels, or exploratory vessels.

That seems like a reasonable attempt at 'plausibility' IMO. <shrug>

Trying to extrapolate such into an economic model for a setting might be doable with rationalizations, but really is beyond the intent of the rules.

As I said in an aside in a previous post, I still think an older, cheaper, more breakdown-prone ship makes for a better ship for PCs, but that is, as I also said, a different issue.
Quite agree. In most of my games (almost all), the PCs never owned 'their' starships or even held a mortgage - if they got one from chargen it was not straight off the lot...
 
For current ship prices, mainly used but some new construction, see the following website.

http://www.apolloduck.com/

As for buying a ship in the real world, the financing agency is going to put the buyer through a very thorough vetting process before purchase, require a detailed business plan showing the ability to make payments and cover all associated costs of operation, and also require the buyer to put up some collateral over and above the ship. They also would likely expect the buyer to put up more than 20% of the cost of the purchase.

Having spent the past 3 years looking for s suitable ship to purchase for use on the Great Lakes and oceans, I have a modicum of an idea as to what is entailed.

As a starship in a universe with no FTL communication, I would imagine that any financing entity is going to do an extremely thorough background check, require additional collateral, and register the financed ships at all possible starports in a subsector or sector, along with requiring mandatory ship log checks. One reason why I view the starship economics in Traveller as quite poor is that no financing entity is going to lend money when speculation is required in order to make a payment. I see speculation as generating the ship's profit margin.
 
As to Traveller banks just handing out loans based on a down payment - my CT LBB#2 says -

[quote snipped]

That seems like a reasonable attempt at 'plausibility' IMO. <shrug>

I agree. I must have overlooked/forgotten all about that paragraph. In exculpation, I'm far from the only one. Very few PC groups that I've heard about have had economic plans which will guarantee that monthly payments are made. Not even the ones from official game material. The crew of the Empress Nicholle in Twilight's Peak, for example. And while there is an early reference to a sort of a plan for the March Harrier in TTA, that is soon forgotten.


Hans
 
One reason why I view the starship economics in Traveller as quite poor is that no financing entity is going to lend money when speculation is required in order to make a payment. I see speculation as generating the ship's profit margin.

Except that speculation is (historically) the norm in cases where communication is limited to speed of travel. Freight only takes over dominance as the mode in the atlantic when telegraph cables went in.
 
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