Actually, my notion of plausibility is based on the fact that the down payment on a new Free Trader is the equivalent of roughly 20 million or more 2013 US dollars. So, no, it could not be the equivalent of a loan to a private owner of an 18-wheeler (that would be a loan to the owner of a grav van).
Was referring to a percentages analogy - not raw dollars. A bank loan for a FT in the OTU wouldn't be equivalent to RW terrestrial 100 million dollar maritime loans to individuals as FTs are much more numerous - like independently owned semi-rigs are much more numerous in the RW than tramp ships.
As to raw dollar equivalences - there are over 3/4 of a million people in the world with wealth in the 10-50 million USD.
(Source: Credit Sussie Global Wealth Databook 2010)
However, it seems I was wrong about what risks a bank runs when loaning money to a shipowner. A ship going foreign in the Old Days must be more or less the equivalent of a starship leaving its home system, and if those shipyards that were mentioned in Greylond's reference could do it and expect their captains to keep up payments, I suppose a bank can do it too.
Risks are generally inherent in any profitable venture - and banks run the gambit of super conservative to outright careless in the RW. Suspect assumptions of the OTU do not have tramp trader financing being the bulk of banking. Even 100% loss in 1 out of so many loans, the bank could still come out ahead given the repos and remortgages of the 9/10 (or whatever arbitrary percentage is applied to defaulters).
Aside from the ROI, which could easily be lower than other, more secure, loans - banks will factor in the collateral worth. Banks financing the industries that build the starships - from mining to assembly - could see this as the cost of doing business. I worked with billion dollar retail where very low margin goods were the cost of making related high-margin sales. Such as selling lumber at a DIY chain. The markup on furring strips is pretty low - but add in a cordless drill, bits, screws, primer, paint... In many cases, retailers sell loss-leaders.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_leader
I still wonder how many people have the equivalent of 20 million dollars that they are willing to invest in something as risky as a private tramp ship, but it appears that any who does can get a bank to finance him.
Not a large percentage - but even a tiny percentage of a large number of sophonts can be large.
As to Traveller banks just handing out loans based on a down payment - my CT LBB#2 says -
LBB2 2nd ed said:
Bank financing is available to qualified individuals ...
...
In addition, the bank will insist that the purchaser submit an economic plan detailing the projected activity which will guarantee that monthly payments are made. Unless a character has some form of guaranteed income (perhaps large rents from some property he owns), this condition will generally rule out purchases (at least financed purchases) of yachts, military vessels, or exploratory vessels.
That seems like a reasonable attempt at 'plausibility' IMO. <shrug>
Trying to extrapolate such into an economic model for a setting might be doable with rationalizations, but really is beyond the intent of the rules.
As I said in an aside in a previous post, I still think an older, cheaper, more breakdown-prone ship makes for a better ship for PCs, but that is, as I also said, a different issue.
Quite agree. In most of my games (almost all), the PCs never owned 'their' starships or even held a mortgage - if they got one from chargen it was not straight off the lot...